I picked up St Sophrony's On Prayer the other day, which came highly recommended. he was a Russian who ended up in England after the Bolshevik seizure of power and finished out his life in Essex (hence St Sophrony of Essex). His settlement initially had no liturgical books, so they chanted the Jesus Prayer. This book is sort of his "how to" manual, so it's a continuation of the hesychast (sic) tradition that's alive on Mr Athos. Alas, sinner that I am, I have not read it. I've been reading Gordon Rhea's account of the Overland Campaign in the US War Between the States, which represents a triumph of the machine soldier and logistics over the rural, heroic age, which consequences we are suffering through today.
Probably the best are the relevant chapters in Freeman's Lees Lieutenants and his Lee biography. I highly recommend Rhea's series though (all five volumes). He clearly likes Grant, and I think set himself the task of cleansing Grant of his "butcher" reputation, but is scrupulously fair and so must draw attention to Grant's many failures and mistakes throughout the campaign. I don't think he succeeds in demonstrating that Grant was a great general, which I don't think he was. A master of logistics, perhaps, and of a sort of industrialized warfare in which the mathematics of attrition were the ruling factor. Lee led from the edge of the battlefield and on at least three occasions, tried to lead his men in charges against the US forces, like Brythnoth or some old Anglo-Saxon hero. One can't imagine Grant doing this; indeed, most of the times he appears in the series, he is sitting under a tree whittling, miles from the front lines.
...and, yet, he persevered, at great cost, and won the day. It was ugly, not glorious.
War is not theoretical. It's bloody, muddy, frustrating, and desperate, and in my experience, the masters come in all different colors, shapes, and sizes. Yet, they win.
He certainly did, but as Solzhenitsyn noted in another context, quite often "winning" is the worst thing that can happen to a nation. The U.S. victory in that war was ugly, and the peace (reconstruction) was even uglier, representing as it did the triumph of banking and industrial interests joined at the hip with an all-powerful government in Washington DC.
I read that Wendell Berry is publishing a new book about race in which he has a section about Robert E Lee. This might be unrelated to your question -- but I'm looking forward to it. He says the book is sure to offend everyone.
My immediate thought though, if you'll permit me with that kind of dichotomy is how does one reconcile this heroic rural figure, with a war that for all purposes is fought for the continuation of bondage. I think it detracts from the bravery of the Northerners fighting when we say, well, they're a machine soldier, they're being helped by rail lines and gunpowder factories, and heavy artillery, which I think the South would have put to use if it was available. There seems to be a line, and I think Macpherson wrote about this in his Civil War books concerning Southern foreign policy with Britain. They tried to speak about the Norman Yolk, that much like the Anglo-Saxons fought against this cosmopolitan and mechanical French invasion, the Southerners fought against this cosmopolitan and mechanical Northern invasion. It just seems like such a weird dichotomy to make.
And I don't remember who wrote it, but some perceptive soul noted that at the time of the war, the South at an emotional level was still very much a part of the 18th century.
Bondage was a factor, but it wasn't the central, overriding factor (although modern American "historiography" makes that claim) and it certainly wasn't front of mind to either Johnny Reb or Billy Yank. It would have faded out on its own by say 1870 or so (and thus leaving the Southerners with the issue of what to do with the freeman. Of course, the Republicans wanted them sequestered in the South, with many northern states writing laws to keep them out.) As for Northern courage, I don't find that they come across all that well in Rhea's books. No matter how exhausted they were by one of Grant's night marches, they always found time to "forage," which is to say, loot, burn and destroy, the latter two for the sheer pleasure of it.
I think the historical record would disagree with the claim that slavery was not the overriding cause of the civil war. MacPherson in "Battle Cry of Freedom" makes a pretty compelling case (with direct quotes from the likes of Davis and Calhoun) that the south rebelled to preserve bondage.
A counterpoint to your argument about looting: when the union accepted the surrender of Vicksburg from the rebels, the army shared their supplies with the defeated troops and townspeople, as well as disbanding the cartels that had been keeping the price of food artificially high, sometimes by taking axes to previously locked storerooms.
While the north benefit from the machinery of its industrial base, that machinery had little material impact on the day-to-day experience of men fighting in the swamps around Vicksburg, or during the overland campaign.
Thanks for drawing my attention to Peter Zeihan, who I was not previously familiar with. I have yet to watch the video linked, but looking him up on Wikipedia, I see the the video probably draws on his new book The End of the World is Just Beginning -- which does appear (from the summary I saw) to deal more substantially with climate change.
What am I doing to ready myself? Well, my wife and I just purchased a few acres of land on which we plan to expand the gardening and orchard plantings that currently exist on our large city lot. And it doesn't hurt that we are in the upper midwest of the United States, a region that should fare better within a country that should fare better, according to Zeihan's analysis. I do, however, have a medical condition that requires fairly pricey specially medications to keep under control, and so it's always on the back of my mind that a collapse may make access to these medications difficult or impossible.
The Orthodox priests on the Lord of Spirits podcast recently had an episode about the Tower of Babel and the collapse of the Babylonian Empire. In light of that and the video, as well as the chaos enveloping the world, I could see globalization as another universalizing Tower that is going to be brought low. Perhaps people in the future will write about us as we do 5th century Romans.
Thanks Paul, I hope you enjoy Paul Vanderklay and Calvin! I’ve watched Paul for years and going to an event with PV and Tom Holland on Saturday. I’ve been prepping for months now, tricky as I have a family of three kids and not a huge amount of space, I have bulk purchased all long life essentials (organic) stock pilled enough wood for our log burning stove to last the winter, got 6 chickens, and now I’m seriously about to press go on a solar system with battery, it’s a big investment…not 100 percent sure but almost there with being convinced. One question Paul…I’m in Cambridge and have been going to the local Romanian Orthodox Church…they don’t have a sermon, I wonder why? Is your church the same?
It's unusual to have no sermon for the Sunday Liturgy if that's the service you're referring to, but not unheard of. Matins or Vespers would not typically be followed by a sermon. Likewise for weekday Liturgies. It really depends on the priest though, I don't believe it's a formal requirement to have one.
I agree with Nikola that it is unusual to have no sermon on Sunday Divine Liturgy, and *where* the sermon is given varies widely by jurisdiction. The Russians tend to give it at the end of the Liturgy before kissing the cross, whereas others give it directly after the Gospel reading before the Litanies of Catechumens and Faithful. It is also true that Orthodox sermons in general are shorter than Protestant ones since they don't form the main event of the service and traditionally people are standing for the whole thing. The priests who give long sermons tend to have churches with pews or some kind of seating situation. Often, sermons are a brief discussion of the saint/feast of the day, or a short lesson on the gospel. Our priest gives his sermon in two languages, so it takes slightly longer, but rarely more than 15-20 minutes for both.
As others say below, it is the norm for a sermon after the liturgy, usually drawing on the day's reading. In my Romanian church it happens at the end of the service. They are usually fairly short. As a priest once said to me, 'if it's longer than fifteen minutes, it's ego!'
I knew a priest who gave weekday sermons that were gems: all were just 3 sentences long! Introduction, bridge, conclusion. Every day. How he did it I haven't a clue (he sure didn't get it off the internet, it was just hatching at that time).
I have to confess…as the Divine Liturgy takes about 2 and a half hours I’ve never actually made it to the end, especially as I’m not baptised in the Orthodox Church (yet) it takes an age for everyone to get communion so I leave around then…perhaps I should last until the end next time! It’s fascinating how the orthodox services are like the opposite of western ones…in the orthodox it’s not about you but God, western…all about you.
Anna is writing from England and you are writing from America. America is not 'the West', whatever some of your compatriots may think. You might be right about 'American evangelical Protestantism' but neither I nor this commenter seem to be talking about that. Pop into a CofE service in England some time and you might see what she means.
Incidentally, your tone here is about the opposite of the one any Christian ought to be employing to an interested 'seeker' they have never met.
You’re right Paul, I’m sincere in my seeking but having tried about 10 local CoFE churches now I give up, there’s no authentic Gospel. Luckily we have 3 Orthodox churches, Romanian, Russian and Greek. I’m also lucky enough to be part of an Anglican orthodox group led my James Orr, got to meet Rod Dreher through him last month, he mentioned he was coming to see you in the fall :-)
"I have to confess…as the Divine Liturgy takes about 2 and a half hours I’ve never actually made it to the end, especially as I’m not baptised in the Orthodox Church (yet) it takes an age for everyone to get communion so I leave around then…perhaps I should last until the end next time! It’s fascinating how the orthodox services are like the opposite of western ones…in the orthodox it’s not about you but God, western…all about you."
If you've never made it to the end of the Liturgy this might explain why you don't hear a sermon :-)
I once heard a sermon in St Mary's Stoke Newington, where after each sentence, the priest said nothing for about 10 seconds. It was extraordinarily powerful (once I'd got over the shock of silence!). The sentences were worth dwelling on.
That particular "sermon" is diabolical because it implies that a mending of one's ways can make him righteous before God, while the truth is that only the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ can do that.
Actually, the sermon does not mention "mending one's ways" at all (nor anything whatever about one's behavior). It counsels "thinking it over", and since the first thing to think about is "God is love," the sermon is actually pointing you straight to Grace.
That assumes that the listener even knows the Gospel and understands ( as well as any of us can ) what the grace of God is. For all of my lifetime, lived entirely in dwindling Christian America, that hasn't been the case, and is even less likely to be true now.
Few humans lack conscience. And there is a Devil, whose delight it is to turn a person's awareness of his sinfulness into an overpowering certainty that he must reform if he wants to escape Hell.
But the Bible is painful in its clarity that no one can be saved by reform. Christianity isn't about reform, it's about regeneration.
The regenerate person, that is, the Christian, can see his sinfulness in a way he never could before his conversion, and the last thing he needs is the sense that his salvation through the grace of God in Christ has been inadequate. He needs to understand that when he sins, the answer is not in a vow to try to do better, but in the confession of his sin to God and the claiming of the forgiveness of God in Jesus Christ.
Regardless of this American evangelical chatter, Orthodox sermons are always based around the gospel reading, and are mostly fairly short in my experience. I have heard some rather beautiful ones., and none of them has been political or aggressive. I know a liturgy is long, especially if it's in Romanian. Might be worth hanging about to see though.
I managed to listen to the full recording of the Romanian liturgy and yes you’re right the sermon was right at the end!! Dur. It was in Romanian though…agh. I’m going to ask the priest if it’s ever in English…you might know him, his name is Fr Dragos Herescu he’s the principle of The Institute for Orthodox Studies here in Cambridge, I like him a lot
Anna, I'm sorry if my long comment to you yesterday hurt your feelings. I've tried several times in the last few minutes to delete it, but everytime I do I'm notified that "something went wrong."
If your idea of what Western Christianity is, as Paul Kingsnorth says, the C of E, it's little wonder you're skeptical of anything Protestant. Christianity is dying in the United States, certainly, but there are still millions of us around.
At this point, I can't think of anything better to do than to recommend the devotional writings of A.W. Tozer. They show a mind which was, as Tozer wrote of C.S. Lewis', as clear as sunshine. Dane Ortlund's book, "Gentle and Lowly" is a recently published gem. And yes, why don't you read an old edition of the BCP?
Did I come across as nasty, Anna? I hear and read this kind of talk all of the time about Internet communication, and one or two people have apologized to me for something they said which just did not come over well in cyberprint.
I wasn't offended. I usually laugh if someone writes something unambiguously mean to me. But each of us is a unique creature, obviously, and if I offended you, please forgive me.
I think there's a sexual difference in this. Forty years ago, friends of ours and we went to hear a free lecture by a renowned allergist. At one point in the talk, he referred to his patients as "poor, miserable bastards." All of the men laughed. The women were stricken.
"My God, what a horrible thing to say!" was the tenor of it. We guys just looked around at one another in bewilderment.
Hi Bobby, I was a bit of a long email to respond to properly as I’m a bit snowed under with three small children…however yes, you’re right my experience of Christianity is the liberal wing of the CoFE, in Cambridge I would say 99percent of churches are liberal and very concerned about the fulfilment of the ‘self’ being a central concern of Jesus, especially in terms of sexuality. The sermons are political, deconstruction based, left wing and very critical of orthodox Christian theology. However, I have a spiritual father who is actually a reformed Calvinist and find him to be so similar to the Orthodox strangely, yes he proclaims faith over works but also a ‘both and’ we show works to become closer to God, in loving obedience and not ‘to get to heaven’ so I do understand your point. I’m just so sad about the CoFE, I’ve experienced so many churches that are really just New Age bumf wrapped up in Christian language. It doesn’t work, we have that in the secular world and we know where that leads. I want a Christian faith that is unfiltered by layers of modernity, the real deal so to speak.
I very much doubt we will see any "collapse" of any sort in the West over the next few years. What I think we will experience is more of the same trends, resulting in spiritual sickness caused by the Machine. The symptoms of the sickness will include the continued inventions of ideologies, such as transgenderism, and artificial intelligence providing an inadequate remedy for the spiritual sickness.
But in the short term, the West will face no real crisis over fuel, energy, or food supplies.
I do think it's overblown as it relates to Russia's invasion. There will be discomfort and some anecdotal problems, but on a macro level I do not think any Western power will be facing imminent collapse or a crisis.
They will feel pain, then scramble, and then make adjustments. It will be unpleasant, but life will mostly go on as before.
I suspect the US feels very different to Europe. In Greece recently, someone regaled me with the notion (I found it convincing) that the US has goaded the EU into stringent sanctions which will punish it economically, and make it continually dependent on the US . Anything to keep that unipolar world going! I doubt any states will collapse myself, but for a large number of people I suspect collapse will be a reality. We may also see 1930s-depth depression, or worse, in which case anything could happen. We'll see.
At the very least, the US knows that pushing the EU against Russia will cause them to depend more on the US (whether or not it is meant as economic punishment). Turning everyone against Russia and China keeps the power in the hands of the US (which was drifting away, perhaps).
I definitely am looking at this from an American perspective, so there are likely sections of the EU that will suffer more than Americans. This winter will bring a squeeze, some will feel it but most will not, but little will really change and the citizenry will retreat to insouciance.
As far as this being part of a larger scheme to foster EU dependency on American industry, is there any part of the American political scene that strikes you as competent enough to pull that off? I think American leadership, across the political spectrum, is floundering right now, trying to find a way forward in a post-religious society with failed institutions and a secular anti-culture churning faux causes and outrages like butter.
It seems to be American foreign policy to me, since at least 2001. Basic PNAC stuff. Keep the potentially opposing superpowers - the EU, Russia, China - down so that the US stays on top. Of course, sometimes it blows up in your face ...
I hear you and my own thoughts are very much the same. Just a slow decline to what who knows. My wife and I decided years ago while everyone on our street ended up taking down their chimneys and installing gas for free, to hang on to ours. We produce most of our food from our large garden that we declined to sell off 50% as a building plot. We have plenty of firewood for the next two winters. And I will gladly share with those who are in need. But I honestly believe that there will be many who will just take it.
I hope that you’re right. if I was to bet, the collapse will be slower and more sustained than an overnight crisis. I am very worried at all the predictions of disaster tho.
like Paul, I have been preparing and expecting for collapse since 2008. one thing I have learned in that time period, is not to trust all the Chicken Littles that say the Sky will be falling tomorrow.
that being said, I am still trying to figure out the best way forward.
I am glad to have access to so many smart and informed people on Pauls Substack.
Hmmm. You may be right about avoiding a collapse, and I could certainly be wrong, but things do seem to be fraying around the edges. I won't point to all the usual suspects, but things closer to my home that I've noticed recently, small indications of a "fraying". For example. I'm seeing more garbage left on the side of the road. And I'm not talking the occasional wrappers from McDonalds or some other fast-food provider, but these are truck loads of crap just dumped on the side of the road. Mail service has become spotty. The problem? Not enough mail carriers. Ferry service between the peninsula where I live and the other side of Puget Sound has also become spotty with ferry runs regularly being canceled. Perhaps the most ominous sign was the shortage of slug bait after a particularly rainy spring. I'll make a leap here and say I think our culture (here in the USA) has been rotting from the inside for years. And now that rot is becoming visible in the little things we used to take for granted.
I notice the same here in the UK. Missed refuse collections. Post deliveries late. A real trial to get to see a health practitioner face to face. Soaring energy prices. What can we do? We are trying to pull together and look after ourselves during this period of change. Becoming involved with practical like minded people is a good start I think. keeping an eye on our old and infirm through the coming winter and trying to convince people to put their chimneys back onto their dwellings and by doing so regain some autonomy and agency when it comes to keeping warm. We have collected 50 lb of blackberries! My wife will boil them up and make blackberry jelly and 'gift' them to our neighbours.
We're doing a lot of the same things that you suggest, Richard, including picking blackberries! My wife and I picked about 10 pounds of blackberries yesterday. We'll freeze some and the rest will become blackberry jam with enough left over for a pie or two. We're also fortunate to live on nearly five wooded acres. We heat the house in the winter with our wood burner, and I have plenty of alder to use for fuel. I built a woodshed over the summer, and have it stocked at the moment with nearly 6 cords of wood with plenty left over to give away to friends. Ditto your comment on trying to get an appointment to see a doctor, fuel prices have skyrocketed here, too, and we're still dealing with shortages on everything from baby formula to slug bait. I really like your combination of ideas: getting more involved with like-minded people along with doing what we can to regain some autonomy and agency. Thanks for your comment and enjoy your blackberries!
I haven't watched the video you linked, but as to preparing for the end: here in the US I do see a little less material chaos than in Europe (though perhaps I've just been blind to it). My wife and I moved to a smaller town that has less stuff and less options than a big city, but feels more stable and is surrounded by more farms (though many are being bought up by developers).
We're hoping to start a garden next year in our back yard - our first step in learning some skills to withstand the apocalypse.
I appreciate Peter Z’s economic perspectives, and to some extent his demographic ones, but he is a bit shaky on some facts, e.g., the US being tight on immigration? I guess he is not counting millions of illlegals. That aside, I agree that the western European model with its collapsing pillars is upon us. It should be noted that large families are being encouraged in Eastern Europe, to thwart the demographic declines Peter is talking about. Whether that works, who knows, butcat least they recognize that things are changing. Windmills saving Britain? Might help, but those 400 foot monstrosities (here in the US) cost near $50,000 apiece per year to maintain and need a lot of materials to build, which Britain does not have. “China makes things, Russia has things, the West buys things.” A broad generalization I know, but not all bad.
Yes, his view on immigration in Britain is off too. He claims that after Brexit the British want closed borders, but in fact immigration post-Brexit is at record levels. I think his lens is too broad, which can be a danger. Still, if he is right about either Germany or China things could get ... interesting.
Agree- things are pretty darn interesting as it is. I often wondered how long countries with a 1.25 replacement rate thought they would survive as nations. Germany’s demise appears to be just round the bend, while China’s will probably be a longer slide. As to importing people as human capital, that could work, but that has its own troubles.
Relatedly, I found his “optimism” at the end incoherent. If, as he predicts, major countries collapse (countries that are nuclear armed, by the way), all bets are off. Maybe I’m pessimistic (which I’m not by nature), but I think the real threat of nuclear war is as a high or higher now than it was during the height of the Cold War. He said “Silicon Valley and London will keep doing what they do”. Well, not if they are a nuclear wasteland.
Agreed. The immaturity and lack of historical perspective, wisdom, and war knowledge by today’s low octane leadership makes stumbling to Armageddon terribly more likely. We have several known jackasses in both political parties here in the US actually bandying about nuke talk like it is no worry. I don’t know if you saw this, but look up New York City nuclear attack public service announcement and try not to laugh. It treats a nuclear attack like a sever thunderstorm warning. God help us.
It was always that way: see the many "duck 'n' cover" videos of American schoolchildren in the 1950s and 1960s. These things are necessary to turn the mind from what a nuclear attack would be.
My school was different. We didn't crouch under our desks and cover our eyes with a forearm. We simply lay a forearm on our desks and put our heads forward so our eyes would rest on that. I have no idea why; maybe it was the principal's realization that the whole thing was ridiculous, so why bother?
I agree that his analysis on Germany and China gives plenty of food for thought. In particular, I find very compelling his analysis of the position of Germany being forced by Russia to a choice between being industrial and neutral or Western and non industrial.
One thing Lyons and Zeinart fully agree on is that the second globalization is over. That should give us reasons to rejoice, if it were not for the fact that the shift out of globalization happens by default, and not by design, very much like the end of the first globalization and the prior transitions of one center of the world economy to new ones. Never a good omen, particularly when the shift takes place in a context characterized by a deep ecological crisis and the presence of arsenals of weapons capable of annihilating all life on Earth.
Though Lyons does not dissimulate that we are in for years of tumult, I find more hope in his image of a world moving "toward a future of regional and separated supply chains, shorter shipping routes, built-in redundancies, and greater national protectionism and self-sufficiency," than in the technologically Promethean and censorious New American century foretold by Zeinart.
The approaching winter certainly would appear to be the start of a new departure in modern times. That said the period of lavish plenty I have lived through is an historical anomaly. My father, born in 1911, lived most of his life without electricity. My grandfather's wedding gift to my Father's brother (now in his 90s) was a large paraffin lamp. My mother had to draw water from a communal well when first married in 1960. We are fortunate that when we moved here we bought two acres and have a developing food forest and plenty to eat, it may turn out to be a boon for us and our neighbours.
Spring is breaking here on our 9 acres. Fruit blossom everywhere, our sheep are lambing, two weaner pigs are settling in and we are starting summer vegetable seeds. Have quietly acquired about 200kg of wheat (and a mill) over winter and now happy to have a holiday from endlessly cutting firewood too. Just hoping there is enough electricity to go around to run the slightly larger freezer we just bought to store last years lambs once the air conditioners, set to a constant 18degC, start spooling up in the great metropolitan heat sinks. We were told recently by a solar installer there was no point putting in a solar system as we 'didn't use enough electricity' to justify the cost. Not wanting to be identified as a mad prepper I fell silent, but will revisit the idea if only to keep that lamb, venison and pork in top condition during brownouts.
Rarely listen to Triggernometry but coincidentally heard that particular episode a few days ago. If memory serves, it's all sunny uplands once the four horsemen have moved on. Must remember to reassure the children.
Watching with no pleasure the potential chaos about to unfold during the coming northern winter and wishing everyone the best. We will not escape the repercussions even at (what once was) this great distance.
If you can be self sustaining on a piece of land, and are young and healthy with land smarts to pull that off, Godspeed. For the rest of us, we’ll be praying for deliverance; I expect fasting will not be a voluntary act of love and sacrifice before too long. I wonder how long “Homo connecticus” will survive.
I just said recently that the world will need healers! So glad to hear you completed your course. Healers and midwives! This is what we will need. I’m not sure about the rest of the world but the medical system in Canada is actively downsizing the population. Wait times are obscene and deadly for many. Oftentimes illness is not even addressed. A quick shrug of the shoulders and a tip of the hat to you. It’s very strange. I just sent my neighbor’s daughter the info for Pacific Rim College (https://www.pacificrimcollege.com/faculties-programs/school-of-western-herbal-medicine-phytotherapy/). She had hopes to attend veterinary college next year but doesn’t want to be vaccinated. I told her that we need natural healers and midwives and she was very excited about the prospects.
She was with me as I drove her mother to the hospital to deliver her baby, three years ago. Needless to say, we never made it to the hospital before the baby was born in my car! Bailiegh was a trooper and just kept exclaiming how providential it was that she had just completed a calving clinic the week before:)
Healers and midwives! This is what we will desperately need.
As for preparation for the coming winter…….we have been homesteading for almost 26 years now. Every fall feels like the apocalypse is coming! :)
We do need an alternative to the current health service. This is partly why i trained - because my mother received such useless treatment from the NHS.
Homesteading for 26 years....you must have a lot of knowledge.
Again, I must reiterate how glad I am that you have taken this path. So much knowledge about how to heal the body and mind has been lost and also simply capitulated to corporations. We are such babes in comparison to our ancestors, at least on this front.
Yes I laughed out loud when Bailiegh said that! She was 13 years old at the time. Such an amazing girl.
I’m told I have lots of knowledge :) I feel more like a life lived and don’t really think of myself as someone who has accumulated knowledge. Most of it is really useless for the most part…..until you need it! Lol.
The collapsing medical system - and the growing incentives for them to kill off the “useless eaters” by guilt or by proxy - is just one of the reasons we are uprooting our family from Canada shortly. The pandemic was eye-opening on so many levels. Out of the frying pan and into the fire, however, as we’re heading to Europe... but at least a part of it where one can grow things year-round and not freeze to death. Definitely want to build community and resilience via permaculture and more sustainable ways of living. Something more tangible to leave our (now adult) children - who are joining us on our adventure. Not much of a future for them here, so why not? Definitely trusting God on this one!
Wow! So many people are leaving Canada. I wish you and your children(who sound amazing) all the best. We thought about it, my husband is Swiss so we could live virtually anywhere in the EU as well, but we are so rooted in the wilderness. We are hoping that our remote location affords us the ability to ride this out. Great to have a community like this one to encourage one another no matter where we are in the world. Would love to hear more of your adventure as it unfolds.
I’m getting that impression--that we aren’t alone in leaving. It certainly wasn’t our Plan A. Till it was. Perhaps if we’d been as established as you seem to be, we’d have ridden it out, but it seemed cost-prohibitive to get started here, compared to our destination. Which basically doesn’t have winter - that’s huge for permaculture beginners! I hope to chronicle our adventure in some fashion, perhaps only in diary form for now, but who knows? If we think it will be helpful, I may start a Substack or something! I love the community here and the sharing of ideas. Very encouraging!
I, for one, would certainly be grateful if you started chronicling on Substack! I think that these kinds of adventures, the building of community and self sustainable living, is the bright side of this dark chapter of history. I hope you find the time and inspiration to do it. It will certainly be inspiring to others.
We’re headed to southern Portugal. Though abundant in sunshine, it’s an arid area, so the application of permaculture methods are an absolute necessity to achieve water conservation and a sustainable food forest and garden! And very different seasons as compared to Canada - or northern England! CSAs and organic produce businesses here in Prince Edward Island make abundant use of both greenhouses and poly tunnels to extend the very short season. Here’s one of the most innovative: https://schurmanfamilyfarm.ca/
Good point. As I recall--it's been a while--the poem ended with "it's all good". I changed it a bit--on purpose. But the popular saying "it's all good" seems to be equivalent to "no worries, bro". The same as St. Augustines, "Love and do as thou wilt" getting turned into "Do as thou wilt" They *seem* nearly the same, but are obviously vastly different.
Blessed are the martyrs who suffered for the name of God. Some say life is short, live it and don’t be afraid. Others, you should be dead already to what the world finds important. Both are true, both life and death are your salvation.
Shari- Once again Meister Eckhart nails it. From my much more limited perspective, dying to the world (which is always ongoing) has to come first. Then living without fear can begin to manifest. Our culture forgets about dying to the world and tells us to go and "live". I know I did that and made quite a mess of things, to say the least.
If we are blessed, maybe these two aspects are always in dialogue.
Hey Jack, I always love reading your comments too! All is well with me actually. In spite of living in Canada. I’m always up for a challenge :)
As for these two aspects being in dialogue…..yes. This is something I’ve been contemplating for most of my life. I do take a lot of comfort from people like Rilke and Meister Eckhart and Valentin Tomberg, and let’s not forget Douglas Harding. We walk a very fine line as human beings, it’s the art of living. One can fall off one side of it or the other and remain, or one can become the artist and master this tightrope. I’ve also be intrigued by the mastery of it, not that I can say I’ve achieved it. So many obstacles to look out for; extremism, moral relativism, nihilism, and so on. As a Christian, I feel tasked to understand this in the deepest way possible. I believe this is exactly what the walking on water account demonstrates. We can only walk on water when we hold the tension between dualities. Otherwise we fall into all of the above obstacles I listed.
After having said all that, I do not in any way think that we need to achieve this. On the contrary, it is a gift from God, and either way we are held by Him, through which everything lives and moves and has its being.
He is everywhere present, filling all things. Amen and hallelujah!
I listened to the Peter Zeihan Triggernometry podcast and then bought the book - he does talk about environmental impact. Frighteningly enough there was another similar podcast the same week on Modern Wisdom with another expert Nate Hagens also predicting collapse and this was from an environmental perspective:
It is stunning to me that no governments or main stream media are paying the slightest attention. Thinking of selling my city house to buy a country property but it’s hard with 4 teenagers who would not appreciate being moved away from friends.
I think an important art in this time is the ability to be sober and prepared in response to the real risks of collapse, and at the same time to live spiritually with our hearts centered more on the eternal than on that which is passing.
For our family it means a habit of providing our own food and firewood from the land, and keeping a substantial surplus on hand. We're very fortunate to have a land base and a lifestyle that's already quite resilient. Yet, we spend about 2 hours per day in liturgical prayer, which is terribly inefficient from a materialist's prepping standpoint. It amounts to 28 hours of 'wasted' adult labor per week. However, it' what we acquire in prayer, not the presence of chicken and lamb in the freezer or grain in the pantry that gives us peace and strength in the face of reports (real or imagined) of war, famine and collapse on the horizon.
Truth be told, I'd rather starve with a heart rightly aligned to God than to keep my body alive and 'survive' by doing harm to others. I try to hold all the preparation lightly - we might be called to give aid to others beyond our means and suffer in common with the rest of our local community.
Mark, I reread your Doorways to the Sacred after watching video Paul referred. Your writing was a wonderful reminder that God redeems our suffering and that anything that happens on this earth we find our true security in God through Jesus Christ . For truly to live is Christ and to die is gain.
I’ll take that gentle admonishment Mark and add that there are no bunkers in the lineage of thinkers like Berry, Logsdon, Schumacher, Mollison, Holmgren etc. who brought us to this place decades ago. That “we might be called to give aid to others beyond our means and suffer in common with the rest of our local community.” Amen to that. Best wishes.
“Truth be told, I'd rather starve with a heart rightly aligned to God than to keep my body alive and 'survive' by doing harm to others.”
We live in the country, on acreage; we garden, preserve, do all the things. But our land happens to be on the edge of a reservation, and my husband works within its bounds. We are daily shown that what the world takes for its daily ‘needs’ has repercussions of magnitude. The kind of poverty and injustice that has been fostered here for centuries is what will happen as more of the rest of the world falls into the space of being ‘left behind’—which, to my way of thinking, is how any collapse will unfold. Those at the top will throw the rest of us under the bus to keep it running one more day (or figure out a way to burn us for fuel). This machine has been built at the cost of doing harm to others, and it isn’t going to stop now.
In watching the video, I was struck by his rather blithe optimism about American agriculture (being a person who has been plagued by drought, flood, high temperatures, and Biblical quantities of bugs this year). I can’t help but think it will be a terrible outcome if the impending disaster bolsters our wasteful, destructive, chemically-dependent ag that is meant only to make processed food. It made me think of “28 Days Later,” when the survivors go looking for food and find rotting piles of produce…except for the pristine, irradiated apples. That is absolutely the sort of solution that will be pushed as the ‘greater good.’ I can’t believe that sort of future is even survival, let alone without harm.
I picked up St Sophrony's On Prayer the other day, which came highly recommended. he was a Russian who ended up in England after the Bolshevik seizure of power and finished out his life in Essex (hence St Sophrony of Essex). His settlement initially had no liturgical books, so they chanted the Jesus Prayer. This book is sort of his "how to" manual, so it's a continuation of the hesychast (sic) tradition that's alive on Mr Athos. Alas, sinner that I am, I have not read it. I've been reading Gordon Rhea's account of the Overland Campaign in the US War Between the States, which represents a triumph of the machine soldier and logistics over the rural, heroic age, which consequences we are suffering through today.
I loved that book
Sophrony’s I mean, haven’t read the other
I'd like to read both books. Is there a book which tells the same story as Rhea's but tells the tale from a Southerner's view?
Probably the best are the relevant chapters in Freeman's Lees Lieutenants and his Lee biography. I highly recommend Rhea's series though (all five volumes). He clearly likes Grant, and I think set himself the task of cleansing Grant of his "butcher" reputation, but is scrupulously fair and so must draw attention to Grant's many failures and mistakes throughout the campaign. I don't think he succeeds in demonstrating that Grant was a great general, which I don't think he was. A master of logistics, perhaps, and of a sort of industrialized warfare in which the mathematics of attrition were the ruling factor. Lee led from the edge of the battlefield and on at least three occasions, tried to lead his men in charges against the US forces, like Brythnoth or some old Anglo-Saxon hero. One can't imagine Grant doing this; indeed, most of the times he appears in the series, he is sitting under a tree whittling, miles from the front lines.
Thank you for taking such care with your response.
...and, yet, he persevered, at great cost, and won the day. It was ugly, not glorious.
War is not theoretical. It's bloody, muddy, frustrating, and desperate, and in my experience, the masters come in all different colors, shapes, and sizes. Yet, they win.
He certainly did, but as Solzhenitsyn noted in another context, quite often "winning" is the worst thing that can happen to a nation. The U.S. victory in that war was ugly, and the peace (reconstruction) was even uglier, representing as it did the triumph of banking and industrial interests joined at the hip with an all-powerful government in Washington DC.
Agreed, friend. And, that is every war, ever.
I read that Wendell Berry is publishing a new book about race in which he has a section about Robert E Lee. This might be unrelated to your question -- but I'm looking forward to it. He says the book is sure to offend everyone.
It does sound interesting!
"...sure to offend everyone..." Sounds like a must read!
My immediate thought though, if you'll permit me with that kind of dichotomy is how does one reconcile this heroic rural figure, with a war that for all purposes is fought for the continuation of bondage. I think it detracts from the bravery of the Northerners fighting when we say, well, they're a machine soldier, they're being helped by rail lines and gunpowder factories, and heavy artillery, which I think the South would have put to use if it was available. There seems to be a line, and I think Macpherson wrote about this in his Civil War books concerning Southern foreign policy with Britain. They tried to speak about the Norman Yolk, that much like the Anglo-Saxons fought against this cosmopolitan and mechanical French invasion, the Southerners fought against this cosmopolitan and mechanical Northern invasion. It just seems like such a weird dichotomy to make.
I think you'd enjoy "I'll Take My Stand," which when it was published circa 1930 was attributed to The Twelve.
And I don't remember who wrote it, but some perceptive soul noted that at the time of the war, the South at an emotional level was still very much a part of the 18th century.
Bondage was a factor, but it wasn't the central, overriding factor (although modern American "historiography" makes that claim) and it certainly wasn't front of mind to either Johnny Reb or Billy Yank. It would have faded out on its own by say 1870 or so (and thus leaving the Southerners with the issue of what to do with the freeman. Of course, the Republicans wanted them sequestered in the South, with many northern states writing laws to keep them out.) As for Northern courage, I don't find that they come across all that well in Rhea's books. No matter how exhausted they were by one of Grant's night marches, they always found time to "forage," which is to say, loot, burn and destroy, the latter two for the sheer pleasure of it.
I think the historical record would disagree with the claim that slavery was not the overriding cause of the civil war. MacPherson in "Battle Cry of Freedom" makes a pretty compelling case (with direct quotes from the likes of Davis and Calhoun) that the south rebelled to preserve bondage.
A counterpoint to your argument about looting: when the union accepted the surrender of Vicksburg from the rebels, the army shared their supplies with the defeated troops and townspeople, as well as disbanding the cartels that had been keeping the price of food artificially high, sometimes by taking axes to previously locked storerooms.
While the north benefit from the machinery of its industrial base, that machinery had little material impact on the day-to-day experience of men fighting in the swamps around Vicksburg, or during the overland campaign.
Thanks for drawing my attention to Peter Zeihan, who I was not previously familiar with. I have yet to watch the video linked, but looking him up on Wikipedia, I see the the video probably draws on his new book The End of the World is Just Beginning -- which does appear (from the summary I saw) to deal more substantially with climate change.
What am I doing to ready myself? Well, my wife and I just purchased a few acres of land on which we plan to expand the gardening and orchard plantings that currently exist on our large city lot. And it doesn't hurt that we are in the upper midwest of the United States, a region that should fare better within a country that should fare better, according to Zeihan's analysis. I do, however, have a medical condition that requires fairly pricey specially medications to keep under control, and so it's always on the back of my mind that a collapse may make access to these medications difficult or impossible.
The Orthodox priests on the Lord of Spirits podcast recently had an episode about the Tower of Babel and the collapse of the Babylonian Empire. In light of that and the video, as well as the chaos enveloping the world, I could see globalization as another universalizing Tower that is going to be brought low. Perhaps people in the future will write about us as we do 5th century Romans.
I often think our Tower of Babel is actually the internet, and if it collapsed, that might be a good thing, although I cannot imagine how it might.
Thanks Paul, I hope you enjoy Paul Vanderklay and Calvin! I’ve watched Paul for years and going to an event with PV and Tom Holland on Saturday. I’ve been prepping for months now, tricky as I have a family of three kids and not a huge amount of space, I have bulk purchased all long life essentials (organic) stock pilled enough wood for our log burning stove to last the winter, got 6 chickens, and now I’m seriously about to press go on a solar system with battery, it’s a big investment…not 100 percent sure but almost there with being convinced. One question Paul…I’m in Cambridge and have been going to the local Romanian Orthodox Church…they don’t have a sermon, I wonder why? Is your church the same?
It's unusual to have no sermon for the Sunday Liturgy if that's the service you're referring to, but not unheard of. Matins or Vespers would not typically be followed by a sermon. Likewise for weekday Liturgies. It really depends on the priest though, I don't believe it's a formal requirement to have one.
I agree with Nikola that it is unusual to have no sermon on Sunday Divine Liturgy, and *where* the sermon is given varies widely by jurisdiction. The Russians tend to give it at the end of the Liturgy before kissing the cross, whereas others give it directly after the Gospel reading before the Litanies of Catechumens and Faithful. It is also true that Orthodox sermons in general are shorter than Protestant ones since they don't form the main event of the service and traditionally people are standing for the whole thing. The priests who give long sermons tend to have churches with pews or some kind of seating situation. Often, sermons are a brief discussion of the saint/feast of the day, or a short lesson on the gospel. Our priest gives his sermon in two languages, so it takes slightly longer, but rarely more than 15-20 minutes for both.
As others say below, it is the norm for a sermon after the liturgy, usually drawing on the day's reading. In my Romanian church it happens at the end of the service. They are usually fairly short. As a priest once said to me, 'if it's longer than fifteen minutes, it's ego!'
I knew a priest who gave weekday sermons that were gems: all were just 3 sentences long! Introduction, bridge, conclusion. Every day. How he did it I haven't a clue (he sure didn't get it off the internet, it was just hatching at that time).
I have to confess…as the Divine Liturgy takes about 2 and a half hours I’ve never actually made it to the end, especially as I’m not baptised in the Orthodox Church (yet) it takes an age for everyone to get communion so I leave around then…perhaps I should last until the end next time! It’s fascinating how the orthodox services are like the opposite of western ones…in the orthodox it’s not about you but God, western…all about you.
Anna is writing from England and you are writing from America. America is not 'the West', whatever some of your compatriots may think. You might be right about 'American evangelical Protestantism' but neither I nor this commenter seem to be talking about that. Pop into a CofE service in England some time and you might see what she means.
Incidentally, your tone here is about the opposite of the one any Christian ought to be employing to an interested 'seeker' they have never met.
You’re right Paul, I’m sincere in my seeking but having tried about 10 local CoFE churches now I give up, there’s no authentic Gospel. Luckily we have 3 Orthodox churches, Romanian, Russian and Greek. I’m also lucky enough to be part of an Anglican orthodox group led my James Orr, got to meet Rod Dreher through him last month, he mentioned he was coming to see you in the fall :-)
"I have to confess…as the Divine Liturgy takes about 2 and a half hours I’ve never actually made it to the end, especially as I’m not baptised in the Orthodox Church (yet) it takes an age for everyone to get communion so I leave around then…perhaps I should last until the end next time! It’s fascinating how the orthodox services are like the opposite of western ones…in the orthodox it’s not about you but God, western…all about you."
If you've never made it to the end of the Liturgy this might explain why you don't hear a sermon :-)
I once heard a sermon in St Mary's Stoke Newington, where after each sentence, the priest said nothing for about 10 seconds. It was extraordinarily powerful (once I'd got over the shock of silence!). The sentences were worth dwelling on.
Shortest sermon I ever heard:
God is love. Life is short. Hell is real. Think it over.
Maybe the sermon is over rated!
That particular "sermon" is diabolical because it implies that a mending of one's ways can make him righteous before God, while the truth is that only the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ can do that.
Actually, the sermon does not mention "mending one's ways" at all (nor anything whatever about one's behavior). It counsels "thinking it over", and since the first thing to think about is "God is love," the sermon is actually pointing you straight to Grace.
At least, that is how I read it.
That assumes that the listener even knows the Gospel and understands ( as well as any of us can ) what the grace of God is. For all of my lifetime, lived entirely in dwindling Christian America, that hasn't been the case, and is even less likely to be true now.
Few humans lack conscience. And there is a Devil, whose delight it is to turn a person's awareness of his sinfulness into an overpowering certainty that he must reform if he wants to escape Hell.
But the Bible is painful in its clarity that no one can be saved by reform. Christianity isn't about reform, it's about regeneration.
The regenerate person, that is, the Christian, can see his sinfulness in a way he never could before his conversion, and the last thing he needs is the sense that his salvation through the grace of God in Christ has been inadequate. He needs to understand that when he sins, the answer is not in a vow to try to do better, but in the confession of his sin to God and the claiming of the forgiveness of God in Jesus Christ.
This is probably not the place for an argument about Christology.
Perhaps, but not in the brevity department 😊
Regardless of this American evangelical chatter, Orthodox sermons are always based around the gospel reading, and are mostly fairly short in my experience. I have heard some rather beautiful ones., and none of them has been political or aggressive. I know a liturgy is long, especially if it's in Romanian. Might be worth hanging about to see though.
I managed to listen to the full recording of the Romanian liturgy and yes you’re right the sermon was right at the end!! Dur. It was in Romanian though…agh. I’m going to ask the priest if it’s ever in English…you might know him, his name is Fr Dragos Herescu he’s the principle of The Institute for Orthodox Studies here in Cambridge, I like him a lot
Anna, I'm sorry if my long comment to you yesterday hurt your feelings. I've tried several times in the last few minutes to delete it, but everytime I do I'm notified that "something went wrong."
If your idea of what Western Christianity is, as Paul Kingsnorth says, the C of E, it's little wonder you're skeptical of anything Protestant. Christianity is dying in the United States, certainly, but there are still millions of us around.
At this point, I can't think of anything better to do than to recommend the devotional writings of A.W. Tozer. They show a mind which was, as Tozer wrote of C.S. Lewis', as clear as sunshine. Dane Ortlund's book, "Gentle and Lowly" is a recently published gem. And yes, why don't you read an old edition of the BCP?
Did I come across as nasty, Anna? I hear and read this kind of talk all of the time about Internet communication, and one or two people have apologized to me for something they said which just did not come over well in cyberprint.
I wasn't offended. I usually laugh if someone writes something unambiguously mean to me. But each of us is a unique creature, obviously, and if I offended you, please forgive me.
I think there's a sexual difference in this. Forty years ago, friends of ours and we went to hear a free lecture by a renowned allergist. At one point in the talk, he referred to his patients as "poor, miserable bastards." All of the men laughed. The women were stricken.
"My God, what a horrible thing to say!" was the tenor of it. We guys just looked around at one another in bewilderment.
Hi Bobby, I was a bit of a long email to respond to properly as I’m a bit snowed under with three small children…however yes, you’re right my experience of Christianity is the liberal wing of the CoFE, in Cambridge I would say 99percent of churches are liberal and very concerned about the fulfilment of the ‘self’ being a central concern of Jesus, especially in terms of sexuality. The sermons are political, deconstruction based, left wing and very critical of orthodox Christian theology. However, I have a spiritual father who is actually a reformed Calvinist and find him to be so similar to the Orthodox strangely, yes he proclaims faith over works but also a ‘both and’ we show works to become closer to God, in loving obedience and not ‘to get to heaven’ so I do understand your point. I’m just so sad about the CoFE, I’ve experienced so many churches that are really just New Age bumf wrapped up in Christian language. It doesn’t work, we have that in the secular world and we know where that leads. I want a Christian faith that is unfiltered by layers of modernity, the real deal so to speak.
How are we preparing? By going to liturgy, trying to love God and the people He puts in our lives, and praying.
I very much doubt we will see any "collapse" of any sort in the West over the next few years. What I think we will experience is more of the same trends, resulting in spiritual sickness caused by the Machine. The symptoms of the sickness will include the continued inventions of ideologies, such as transgenderism, and artificial intelligence providing an inadequate remedy for the spiritual sickness.
But in the short term, the West will face no real crisis over fuel, energy, or food supplies.
Certainly not everyone will face a crisis, but you think all the fear about the fuel supply is overblown?
I do think it's overblown as it relates to Russia's invasion. There will be discomfort and some anecdotal problems, but on a macro level I do not think any Western power will be facing imminent collapse or a crisis.
They will feel pain, then scramble, and then make adjustments. It will be unpleasant, but life will mostly go on as before.
That's definitely how it feels in the US (at least among the middle class).
I suspect the US feels very different to Europe. In Greece recently, someone regaled me with the notion (I found it convincing) that the US has goaded the EU into stringent sanctions which will punish it economically, and make it continually dependent on the US . Anything to keep that unipolar world going! I doubt any states will collapse myself, but for a large number of people I suspect collapse will be a reality. We may also see 1930s-depth depression, or worse, in which case anything could happen. We'll see.
At the very least, the US knows that pushing the EU against Russia will cause them to depend more on the US (whether or not it is meant as economic punishment). Turning everyone against Russia and China keeps the power in the hands of the US (which was drifting away, perhaps).
I definitely am looking at this from an American perspective, so there are likely sections of the EU that will suffer more than Americans. This winter will bring a squeeze, some will feel it but most will not, but little will really change and the citizenry will retreat to insouciance.
As far as this being part of a larger scheme to foster EU dependency on American industry, is there any part of the American political scene that strikes you as competent enough to pull that off? I think American leadership, across the political spectrum, is floundering right now, trying to find a way forward in a post-religious society with failed institutions and a secular anti-culture churning faux causes and outrages like butter.
It seems to be American foreign policy to me, since at least 2001. Basic PNAC stuff. Keep the potentially opposing superpowers - the EU, Russia, China - down so that the US stays on top. Of course, sometimes it blows up in your face ...
Standard operating procedure for the IMF. Now coming to a "first world" country near you!
Ill fares the land, to hastening ill a prey,
Where wealth accumulates and men decay:
O Goldsmith.
I hear you and my own thoughts are very much the same. Just a slow decline to what who knows. My wife and I decided years ago while everyone on our street ended up taking down their chimneys and installing gas for free, to hang on to ours. We produce most of our food from our large garden that we declined to sell off 50% as a building plot. We have plenty of firewood for the next two winters. And I will gladly share with those who are in need. But I honestly believe that there will be many who will just take it.
I hope that you’re right. if I was to bet, the collapse will be slower and more sustained than an overnight crisis. I am very worried at all the predictions of disaster tho.
like Paul, I have been preparing and expecting for collapse since 2008. one thing I have learned in that time period, is not to trust all the Chicken Littles that say the Sky will be falling tomorrow.
that being said, I am still trying to figure out the best way forward.
I am glad to have access to so many smart and informed people on Pauls Substack.
what a blessing..!
I certainly hope you're right. How many more "plandemics" and all the resulting totalitarianism can we sustain before it all breaks down?
Hmmm. You may be right about avoiding a collapse, and I could certainly be wrong, but things do seem to be fraying around the edges. I won't point to all the usual suspects, but things closer to my home that I've noticed recently, small indications of a "fraying". For example. I'm seeing more garbage left on the side of the road. And I'm not talking the occasional wrappers from McDonalds or some other fast-food provider, but these are truck loads of crap just dumped on the side of the road. Mail service has become spotty. The problem? Not enough mail carriers. Ferry service between the peninsula where I live and the other side of Puget Sound has also become spotty with ferry runs regularly being canceled. Perhaps the most ominous sign was the shortage of slug bait after a particularly rainy spring. I'll make a leap here and say I think our culture (here in the USA) has been rotting from the inside for years. And now that rot is becoming visible in the little things we used to take for granted.
I notice the same here in the UK. Missed refuse collections. Post deliveries late. A real trial to get to see a health practitioner face to face. Soaring energy prices. What can we do? We are trying to pull together and look after ourselves during this period of change. Becoming involved with practical like minded people is a good start I think. keeping an eye on our old and infirm through the coming winter and trying to convince people to put their chimneys back onto their dwellings and by doing so regain some autonomy and agency when it comes to keeping warm. We have collected 50 lb of blackberries! My wife will boil them up and make blackberry jelly and 'gift' them to our neighbours.
We're doing a lot of the same things that you suggest, Richard, including picking blackberries! My wife and I picked about 10 pounds of blackberries yesterday. We'll freeze some and the rest will become blackberry jam with enough left over for a pie or two. We're also fortunate to live on nearly five wooded acres. We heat the house in the winter with our wood burner, and I have plenty of alder to use for fuel. I built a woodshed over the summer, and have it stocked at the moment with nearly 6 cords of wood with plenty left over to give away to friends. Ditto your comment on trying to get an appointment to see a doctor, fuel prices have skyrocketed here, too, and we're still dealing with shortages on everything from baby formula to slug bait. I really like your combination of ideas: getting more involved with like-minded people along with doing what we can to regain some autonomy and agency. Thanks for your comment and enjoy your blackberries!
Looking good Michael. Here's to you and yours.
I haven't watched the video you linked, but as to preparing for the end: here in the US I do see a little less material chaos than in Europe (though perhaps I've just been blind to it). My wife and I moved to a smaller town that has less stuff and less options than a big city, but feels more stable and is surrounded by more farms (though many are being bought up by developers).
We're hoping to start a garden next year in our back yard - our first step in learning some skills to withstand the apocalypse.
Otherwise, I'm going to "watch and pray."
I appreciate Peter Z’s economic perspectives, and to some extent his demographic ones, but he is a bit shaky on some facts, e.g., the US being tight on immigration? I guess he is not counting millions of illlegals. That aside, I agree that the western European model with its collapsing pillars is upon us. It should be noted that large families are being encouraged in Eastern Europe, to thwart the demographic declines Peter is talking about. Whether that works, who knows, butcat least they recognize that things are changing. Windmills saving Britain? Might help, but those 400 foot monstrosities (here in the US) cost near $50,000 apiece per year to maintain and need a lot of materials to build, which Britain does not have. “China makes things, Russia has things, the West buys things.” A broad generalization I know, but not all bad.
Yes, his view on immigration in Britain is off too. He claims that after Brexit the British want closed borders, but in fact immigration post-Brexit is at record levels. I think his lens is too broad, which can be a danger. Still, if he is right about either Germany or China things could get ... interesting.
Agree- things are pretty darn interesting as it is. I often wondered how long countries with a 1.25 replacement rate thought they would survive as nations. Germany’s demise appears to be just round the bend, while China’s will probably be a longer slide. As to importing people as human capital, that could work, but that has its own troubles.
Relatedly, I found his “optimism” at the end incoherent. If, as he predicts, major countries collapse (countries that are nuclear armed, by the way), all bets are off. Maybe I’m pessimistic (which I’m not by nature), but I think the real threat of nuclear war is as a high or higher now than it was during the height of the Cold War. He said “Silicon Valley and London will keep doing what they do”. Well, not if they are a nuclear wasteland.
Agreed. The immaturity and lack of historical perspective, wisdom, and war knowledge by today’s low octane leadership makes stumbling to Armageddon terribly more likely. We have several known jackasses in both political parties here in the US actually bandying about nuke talk like it is no worry. I don’t know if you saw this, but look up New York City nuclear attack public service announcement and try not to laugh. It treats a nuclear attack like a sever thunderstorm warning. God help us.
It was always that way: see the many "duck 'n' cover" videos of American schoolchildren in the 1950s and 1960s. These things are necessary to turn the mind from what a nuclear attack would be.
My school was different. We didn't crouch under our desks and cover our eyes with a forearm. We simply lay a forearm on our desks and put our heads forward so our eyes would rest on that. I have no idea why; maybe it was the principal's realization that the whole thing was ridiculous, so why bother?
I agree that his analysis on Germany and China gives plenty of food for thought. In particular, I find very compelling his analysis of the position of Germany being forced by Russia to a choice between being industrial and neutral or Western and non industrial.
However, taking cues from NS Lyons' last piece on China and food security, the Chinese leaders seem to have at least the advantage of seeing things coming and the determination to adjust to the new reality, unlike Western leaders. https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/why-is-china-so-obsessed-with-food?r=16msp&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
One thing Lyons and Zeinart fully agree on is that the second globalization is over. That should give us reasons to rejoice, if it were not for the fact that the shift out of globalization happens by default, and not by design, very much like the end of the first globalization and the prior transitions of one center of the world economy to new ones. Never a good omen, particularly when the shift takes place in a context characterized by a deep ecological crisis and the presence of arsenals of weapons capable of annihilating all life on Earth.
Though Lyons does not dissimulate that we are in for years of tumult, I find more hope in his image of a world moving "toward a future of regional and separated supply chains, shorter shipping routes, built-in redundancies, and greater national protectionism and self-sufficiency," than in the technologically Promethean and censorious New American century foretold by Zeinart.
Amen to shorter supply chains, shorter shipping routes, …. Makes my retirement job plans more appealing (less stress on my pushcart).
The approaching winter certainly would appear to be the start of a new departure in modern times. That said the period of lavish plenty I have lived through is an historical anomaly. My father, born in 1911, lived most of his life without electricity. My grandfather's wedding gift to my Father's brother (now in his 90s) was a large paraffin lamp. My mother had to draw water from a communal well when first married in 1960. We are fortunate that when we moved here we bought two acres and have a developing food forest and plenty to eat, it may turn out to be a boon for us and our neighbours.
Spring is breaking here on our 9 acres. Fruit blossom everywhere, our sheep are lambing, two weaner pigs are settling in and we are starting summer vegetable seeds. Have quietly acquired about 200kg of wheat (and a mill) over winter and now happy to have a holiday from endlessly cutting firewood too. Just hoping there is enough electricity to go around to run the slightly larger freezer we just bought to store last years lambs once the air conditioners, set to a constant 18degC, start spooling up in the great metropolitan heat sinks. We were told recently by a solar installer there was no point putting in a solar system as we 'didn't use enough electricity' to justify the cost. Not wanting to be identified as a mad prepper I fell silent, but will revisit the idea if only to keep that lamb, venison and pork in top condition during brownouts.
Rarely listen to Triggernometry but coincidentally heard that particular episode a few days ago. If memory serves, it's all sunny uplands once the four horsemen have moved on. Must remember to reassure the children.
Watching with no pleasure the potential chaos about to unfold during the coming northern winter and wishing everyone the best. We will not escape the repercussions even at (what once was) this great distance.
If you can be self sustaining on a piece of land, and are young and healthy with land smarts to pull that off, Godspeed. For the rest of us, we’ll be praying for deliverance; I expect fasting will not be a voluntary act of love and sacrifice before too long. I wonder how long “Homo connecticus” will survive.
Not a fan of the video or his smarmy charmy technocratic tyranny.
What am i doing to prepare?
I'm hoping the 4 year training course in medical herbalism that i just completed will come in handy.
I also have logs and duvets and rice.
I misread 'logs' as 'legs', but that could be an equally useful bit of prepping.
Legs are always handy.
But are hands always leggy?
I just said recently that the world will need healers! So glad to hear you completed your course. Healers and midwives! This is what we will need. I’m not sure about the rest of the world but the medical system in Canada is actively downsizing the population. Wait times are obscene and deadly for many. Oftentimes illness is not even addressed. A quick shrug of the shoulders and a tip of the hat to you. It’s very strange. I just sent my neighbor’s daughter the info for Pacific Rim College (https://www.pacificrimcollege.com/faculties-programs/school-of-western-herbal-medicine-phytotherapy/). She had hopes to attend veterinary college next year but doesn’t want to be vaccinated. I told her that we need natural healers and midwives and she was very excited about the prospects.
She was with me as I drove her mother to the hospital to deliver her baby, three years ago. Needless to say, we never made it to the hospital before the baby was born in my car! Bailiegh was a trooper and just kept exclaiming how providential it was that she had just completed a calving clinic the week before:)
Healers and midwives! This is what we will desperately need.
As for preparation for the coming winter…….we have been homesteading for almost 26 years now. Every fall feels like the apocalypse is coming! :)
Slow and steady wins the race.
Lol at the calving clinic comment!
We do need an alternative to the current health service. This is partly why i trained - because my mother received such useless treatment from the NHS.
Homesteading for 26 years....you must have a lot of knowledge.
Again, I must reiterate how glad I am that you have taken this path. So much knowledge about how to heal the body and mind has been lost and also simply capitulated to corporations. We are such babes in comparison to our ancestors, at least on this front.
Yes I laughed out loud when Bailiegh said that! She was 13 years old at the time. Such an amazing girl.
I’m told I have lots of knowledge :) I feel more like a life lived and don’t really think of myself as someone who has accumulated knowledge. Most of it is really useless for the most part…..until you need it! Lol.
It's true we've lost so much herbal knowledge.
I feel like i would need several lifetimes to get really good at it.
Yes, amen to healers, and yes, may it be so, to midwives!
The collapsing medical system - and the growing incentives for them to kill off the “useless eaters” by guilt or by proxy - is just one of the reasons we are uprooting our family from Canada shortly. The pandemic was eye-opening on so many levels. Out of the frying pan and into the fire, however, as we’re heading to Europe... but at least a part of it where one can grow things year-round and not freeze to death. Definitely want to build community and resilience via permaculture and more sustainable ways of living. Something more tangible to leave our (now adult) children - who are joining us on our adventure. Not much of a future for them here, so why not? Definitely trusting God on this one!
Wow! So many people are leaving Canada. I wish you and your children(who sound amazing) all the best. We thought about it, my husband is Swiss so we could live virtually anywhere in the EU as well, but we are so rooted in the wilderness. We are hoping that our remote location affords us the ability to ride this out. Great to have a community like this one to encourage one another no matter where we are in the world. Would love to hear more of your adventure as it unfolds.
I’m getting that impression--that we aren’t alone in leaving. It certainly wasn’t our Plan A. Till it was. Perhaps if we’d been as established as you seem to be, we’d have ridden it out, but it seemed cost-prohibitive to get started here, compared to our destination. Which basically doesn’t have winter - that’s huge for permaculture beginners! I hope to chronicle our adventure in some fashion, perhaps only in diary form for now, but who knows? If we think it will be helpful, I may start a Substack or something! I love the community here and the sharing of ideas. Very encouraging!
I, for one, would certainly be grateful if you started chronicling on Substack! I think that these kinds of adventures, the building of community and self sustainable living, is the bright side of this dark chapter of history. I hope you find the time and inspiration to do it. It will certainly be inspiring to others.
I'd be really interested to hear where you're heading for.
Here in northern England the growing season is short and a greenhouse or polytunnel is recommended.
We’re headed to southern Portugal. Though abundant in sunshine, it’s an arid area, so the application of permaculture methods are an absolute necessity to achieve water conservation and a sustainable food forest and garden! And very different seasons as compared to Canada - or northern England! CSAs and organic produce businesses here in Prince Edward Island make abundant use of both greenhouses and poly tunnels to extend the very short season. Here’s one of the most innovative: https://schurmanfamilyfarm.ca/
I will seriously consider it!
Reminds me of this, one of my favs: https://www.amazon.com/Country-Pointed-Stories-Signet-Classics-ebook/dp/B002OFVOOU/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
First encountered it reading Wendell Berry. Well worth the time, if you have the time.
Learn how to fast. Deepen silent prayer/meditation practice. Die before you die.
Fun things like that.
Flee the world. Be silent. Dwell in stillness.
I was thinking of selling hats emblazoned with "Fuga Mundi." If the monastery has a gift shop, the hats would be best sellers.
Jim- That is an excellent idea! I would certainly buy one! -Jack
Die before you die, that's the ticket. Then life begins.
A zen poem I recall from memory, something like:
Die before you die
and be totally dead
Then do as you need
Everything is good.
That adds layers of meaning to the saying, "It's all good".
Good point. As I recall--it's been a while--the poem ended with "it's all good". I changed it a bit--on purpose. But the popular saying "it's all good" seems to be equivalent to "no worries, bro". The same as St. Augustines, "Love and do as thou wilt" getting turned into "Do as thou wilt" They *seem* nearly the same, but are obviously vastly different.
Amen
Blessed are the martyrs who suffered for the name of God. Some say life is short, live it and don’t be afraid. Others, you should be dead already to what the world finds important. Both are true, both life and death are your salvation.
- Meister Eckhart
Shari- Once again Meister Eckhart nails it. From my much more limited perspective, dying to the world (which is always ongoing) has to come first. Then living without fear can begin to manifest. Our culture forgets about dying to the world and tells us to go and "live". I know I did that and made quite a mess of things, to say the least.
If we are blessed, maybe these two aspects are always in dialogue.
I hope all is well with you. -Jack
Hey Jack, I always love reading your comments too! All is well with me actually. In spite of living in Canada. I’m always up for a challenge :)
As for these two aspects being in dialogue…..yes. This is something I’ve been contemplating for most of my life. I do take a lot of comfort from people like Rilke and Meister Eckhart and Valentin Tomberg, and let’s not forget Douglas Harding. We walk a very fine line as human beings, it’s the art of living. One can fall off one side of it or the other and remain, or one can become the artist and master this tightrope. I’ve also be intrigued by the mastery of it, not that I can say I’ve achieved it. So many obstacles to look out for; extremism, moral relativism, nihilism, and so on. As a Christian, I feel tasked to understand this in the deepest way possible. I believe this is exactly what the walking on water account demonstrates. We can only walk on water when we hold the tension between dualities. Otherwise we fall into all of the above obstacles I listed.
After having said all that, I do not in any way think that we need to achieve this. On the contrary, it is a gift from God, and either way we are held by Him, through which everything lives and moves and has its being.
He is everywhere present, filling all things. Amen and hallelujah!
Hope this also finds you well.
I listened to the Peter Zeihan Triggernometry podcast and then bought the book - he does talk about environmental impact. Frighteningly enough there was another similar podcast the same week on Modern Wisdom with another expert Nate Hagens also predicting collapse and this was from an environmental perspective:
https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/modern-wisdom/id1347973549?i=1000574967600
It is stunning to me that no governments or main stream media are paying the slightest attention. Thinking of selling my city house to buy a country property but it’s hard with 4 teenagers who would not appreciate being moved away from friends.
I think an important art in this time is the ability to be sober and prepared in response to the real risks of collapse, and at the same time to live spiritually with our hearts centered more on the eternal than on that which is passing.
For our family it means a habit of providing our own food and firewood from the land, and keeping a substantial surplus on hand. We're very fortunate to have a land base and a lifestyle that's already quite resilient. Yet, we spend about 2 hours per day in liturgical prayer, which is terribly inefficient from a materialist's prepping standpoint. It amounts to 28 hours of 'wasted' adult labor per week. However, it' what we acquire in prayer, not the presence of chicken and lamb in the freezer or grain in the pantry that gives us peace and strength in the face of reports (real or imagined) of war, famine and collapse on the horizon.
Truth be told, I'd rather starve with a heart rightly aligned to God than to keep my body alive and 'survive' by doing harm to others. I try to hold all the preparation lightly - we might be called to give aid to others beyond our means and suffer in common with the rest of our local community.
Amen.
Mark, I reread your Doorways to the Sacred after watching video Paul referred. Your writing was a wonderful reminder that God redeems our suffering and that anything that happens on this earth we find our true security in God through Jesus Christ . For truly to live is Christ and to die is gain.
I’ll take that gentle admonishment Mark and add that there are no bunkers in the lineage of thinkers like Berry, Logsdon, Schumacher, Mollison, Holmgren etc. who brought us to this place decades ago. That “we might be called to give aid to others beyond our means and suffer in common with the rest of our local community.” Amen to that. Best wishes.
“Truth be told, I'd rather starve with a heart rightly aligned to God than to keep my body alive and 'survive' by doing harm to others.”
We live in the country, on acreage; we garden, preserve, do all the things. But our land happens to be on the edge of a reservation, and my husband works within its bounds. We are daily shown that what the world takes for its daily ‘needs’ has repercussions of magnitude. The kind of poverty and injustice that has been fostered here for centuries is what will happen as more of the rest of the world falls into the space of being ‘left behind’—which, to my way of thinking, is how any collapse will unfold. Those at the top will throw the rest of us under the bus to keep it running one more day (or figure out a way to burn us for fuel). This machine has been built at the cost of doing harm to others, and it isn’t going to stop now.
In watching the video, I was struck by his rather blithe optimism about American agriculture (being a person who has been plagued by drought, flood, high temperatures, and Biblical quantities of bugs this year). I can’t help but think it will be a terrible outcome if the impending disaster bolsters our wasteful, destructive, chemically-dependent ag that is meant only to make processed food. It made me think of “28 Days Later,” when the survivors go looking for food and find rotting piles of produce…except for the pristine, irradiated apples. That is absolutely the sort of solution that will be pushed as the ‘greater good.’ I can’t believe that sort of future is even survival, let alone without harm.